Effect of a solar eclipse on GCP EGG variance

William C. Treurniet, April, 2010

Summary. A change in GCP EGG variance was found in an analysis of data collected during the 1999 solar eclipse. The mean EGG variance increased significantly during the interval preceding the peak of the eclipse. The results suggest a simple laboratory model of the GCP effect for studying its properties. The model is based on Kozyrev's time flow hypothesis.

1. Introduction

The Global Consciousness Project (GCP) records and stores the behavior of a network of globally distributed random event generators called EGGs (ElectroGaiaGrams). Each EGG creates a stream of random bits every second by sampling "quantum-indeterminate electronic noise". The resulting bit stream is then sent to a centralized database. The project evaluates the likelihood that the EGGs respond to events that are meaningful to humans such as destructive earthquakes or terrorist attacks. The evidence shows that the EGGs do respond to such events with odds against chance greater than a million to one.

A physical effect discovered by N.A. Kozyrev, a respected Russian astronomer, might be related to the observed effect on the EGGs. Kozyrev's research suggested that the rate of time flow could be affected by an irreversible process. His work was summarized in English (HTML) (PDF) by A.P. Levich (1996).

Kozyrev maintained that "the processes increasing entropy where they are happening, emit time. These are, for instance, ice melting, liquid evaporation, dissolution of substances in water and even plant withering. The contrary processes, such as cooling of bodies and water freezing, absorb time...�. These processes produced reliable changes in his measuring devices that he felt could not have arisen from any normal causal chain of events. Even "the work of a human head" appeared to produce detectable effects. Time flow detectors measured physical properties such as resistor resistance values, mercury levels in thermometers, quartz crystal vibration frequencies, thermocouple potentials, water viscosity, photoelectric cell responses, chemical reaction rates, and biological growth parameters. Since he was an astronomer, he was able to measure effects of astronomical events on the time flow. For example, during a lunar eclipse, the lunar surface undergoes a rapid and extreme temperature increase after the maximum eclipse phase. This change was detected on earth by a time flow detector.

Kozyrev found that his detector responded to a lunar eclipse as the shadow moved across the face of the moon. Perhaps a similar reaction would have occurred during the solar eclipse of August 11, 1999. An earlier GCP study reported that five of the seven EGGs in the path of this eclipse appeared to react while the eclipse was in progress. The eclipse data is reanalyzed here using a different approach more suitable for tracking the time course of the effect.

2.1 The 1999 solar eclipse

The aforementioned GCP report gives the beginning of the eclipse with respect to each of the seven EGGs. Locations are shown in Figure 1 taken from the earlier report. The analysis period began one hour before the start of the eclipse and extended for 3.5 hours. For six EGGs in Europe, the peak of the eclipse fell into the same 15-minute interval. For the seventh EGG in India, the start of the sampling period was moved earlier by 45 minutes so that the eclipse peak for that EGG would align with the others. Table 1 shows the start time of the sampling interval (UTC) for each EGG, and the variances for each of the fourteen consecutive 15-min intervals following that start time.

 
Figure 1. Locations of EGGs in path of eclipse. 


Table 1. 1999 Eclipse - Variance per interval per EGG
ID  37  101  102  112  114  1000  1022  Mean  StErr 
Start  8:08:29  7:54:04  8:25:22  8:08:29  10:17:19  8:08:52  8:15:29     
49.84  49.92  50.77  50.72  50.42  51.25  46.80  49.96  0.559 
48.18  48.89  50.40  49.01  49.06  49.47  49.54  49.22  0.258 
48.91  50.41  51.28  50.13  50.82  52.21  49.05  50.40  0.445 
50.51  49.29  51.09  49.52  50.64  48.85  47.33  49.60  0.486 
49.16  52.21  52.42  51.44  48.14  50.41  52.07  50.84  0.628 
49.08  51.79  49.32  46.59  52.34  50.15  48.70  49.71  0.736 
49.07  50.15  53.20  49.86  47.76  49.54  52.43  50.29  0.720 
47.05  49.14  49.19  49.73  53.30  52.56  48.84  49.97  0.830 
51.05  52.74  57.38  50.83  55.66  51.73  57.42  53.83  1.104 
10  53.24  54.70  50.98  45.52  50.89  53.85  47.93  51.01  1.256 
11  48.68  49.10  52.36  47.53  48.50  50.20  48.45  49.26  0.599 
12  48.22  48.88  48.26  54.66  47.73  51.26  48.75  49.68  0.936 
13  52.11  51.56  49.60  50.50  50.95  48.38  50.03  50.45  0.474 
14  51.31  52.37  48.14  49.66  46.10  48.40  49.88  49.41  0.790 

A plot of the means of the seven EGGs are shown in Figure 2, along with plus and minus the standard error of the mean. The eclipse began at the start of Interval 5 while the peak of the eclipse occurred in Interval 10. An analysis of variance with Interval as the between factor and EGG the random factor gave a significant effect of Interval (F(13,84)= 2.441, p = .007). Note that the maximum variance occurred in Interval 9, the 15-minute period preceding the peak eclipse interval. Interval 9 is clearly responsible for the statistically significant effect.

 
Figure 2. EGG variance in response to eclipse approach. 

We know from the previous analysis that the EGGs in the path of the eclipse behaved differently from the others during the time of the eclipse. What this analysis shows is a more precise time course of the EGGs' responses to the eclipse. The mean variance of the EGGs deviated significantly only during the 15-minute interval just before the peak of the eclipse.

Discussion

The above analysis shows that the EGGs in the path of the eclipse were affected mainly during the buildup to the peak of the eclipse. One could say that the areas around the EGGs were exposed during this period to a temporal temperature gradient as the sun became gradually less visible. According to Kozyrev's time flow hypothesis, this gradient would change the rate of time flow. If the internal mechanism of an EGG is sensitive to a change in the rate of time flow, the EGG would be expected to deviate from expectation during the very interval when the temperature gradient was at a maximum just prior to the eclipse peak.

The analysis suggests a possible laboratory model of the GCP effect for studying its properties. That is, an entropy gradient created near an EGG, such as evaporating liquid nitrogen or heating water, may cause a measureable deviation in the EGG's variance.

Bibliography

Levich, A.P. A Substantial Interpretation of N.A. Kozyrev�s Conception of Time. Singapore, New Jersey, London, Hong Kong: World Scientific, 1996, p. 1-42.

Roger D. Nelson and Peter A. Bancel. Anomalous Anticipatory Responses in Networked Random Data. AIP Conf. Proc., Volume 863, pp. 260-272, 2006.


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